Atom Wave: Market Election 2008

Atom Wave

Saturday, March 01, 2008

Market Election 2008

When do you know that you can go to the polls to decide on the next president? The decision has already been made, and it will very likely be Obama. Now in full disclosure, I have never been a fan of him. His campaign is all about style, with minimal substance. All that McCain seems to want is the continuation of the failed greed fest Bush policies. As for Hillary and just about every politician, you can never get a straight answer from them.
More to the point, the decision has already been made. One of the much magic’s of the market is that you can get much better predictions if you attach a monetary incentive to the result. The system is actually straightforward; lets say that you bet $100 that McCain will win the presidency. Now lets also assume that I bet $200 that Hillary will win, and that that hammered psychopath standing right behind you with a shattered beer bottle bet $500 that Obama will win. After it is all over, I’m out $200 and the psychopath is up $800 towards the purchase of new beer bottles.
This concept is far from new, and it successfully predicted the reelection of W in the 2004 election. The one thing that you can count on is that polls and those dubious television pundits and now obsolete.


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